A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century according to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model has an average warming of 3.0°C
See also: Economics of global warming#Scenarios
Shows climate model predictions for global warming under the SRES A2 emissions scenario(vague – see talk page) relative to global average temperatures in 2000. The A2 scenario family is characterized by a politically and socially diverse world that exhibits sustained economic growth but does not address the inequities between rich and poor nations, and takes no special actions to combat global warming or environmental change issues. This world in 2100 is characterized by large population (15 billion), high total energy use, and moderate levels of fossil fuel dependency (mostly coal). The A2 scenario was the most frequently studied of the SRES scenarios at the time of the IPCC Third Assessment Report.
In total, there are forty SRES scenarios, and they are grouped into six scenario "families": A1B, A1FI, A1T, A2, B1 and B2 (Morita et al., 2001:143-147). Each group has an illustrative "marker" scenario.
No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES scenarios (IPCC, 2007b:44). The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives, which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol (IPCC, 2007a:18).
For the six SRES marker scenarios, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007:7-8) gave a "best estimate" of global mean temperature increase (2090-2099 relative to the period 1980-1999) that ranged from 1.8 °C to 4.0 °C. Over the same time period, the IPCC gave a "likely" range (greater than 66% probability, based on expert judgement) for these scenarios was for a global mean temperature increase of between 1.1 and 6.4 °C. These ranges stem from a combination of uncertainty over future emissions and variations between models regarding the expected response to a given set of emissions. The figure above, showing the disagreement among models for a single scenario, illustrates the latter kind of uncertainty. The lowest temperature increase was for the B1 marker scenario, where the best estimate warming was 1.8 °C (1.1 to 2.9 °C likely range). The highest increase was for the A1F1 marker scenario, of 4.0 °C (2.4 to 6.4 °C likely range). For the A2 marker scenario, the best estimate was 3.4 °C (2.0 to 5.4 °C likely range).
Temperature Increase 2000 to 2100 (°C)
Model
Total
Land
Ocean
CCSR/NIES
4.7
7.0
3.8
CCCma
4.0
5.0
3.6
CSIRO
3.8
4.9
3.4
Hadley Centre
3.7
5.5
3.0
GFDL
3.3
4.2
3.0
MPI-M
3.0
4.6
2.4
NCAR PCM
2.3
3.1
2.0
NCAR CSM
2.2
2.7
2.0
References
IPCC (2000). An Overview of Scenarios. In: IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios [N. Nakicenovic and R. Swart (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, U.K.. Retrieved on 2010-03-03.
Morita, T. et al. (2001). Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications. In: Climate Change 2001: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [B. Metz et al. Eds.]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Retrieved on 2010-01-10.
IPCC (2007). Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team et al. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. Retrieved on 2009-05-20.
IPCC (2007a). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, U.K., and New York, N.Y., U.S.A.. Retrieved on 2009-05-20.
Models
The model data used above was taken from the IPCC-DDC, and the models are as follows:
CCSR/NIES: Center for Climate System Research [1] & National Institute for Environmental Studies, [2], CCSR/NIES AGCM + CCSR OGCM Models 1890-2100
CCCma: Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis [3], CGCm2 Model 1900-2100
CSIRO: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [4], CSIRO-Mk2 model 1961-2100
Hadley Centre: Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research [5], HADCM3 model 1950-2099
GFDL: Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory [6], R30 Model 1961-2100
MPI-M: Max Planck Institute für Meteorologie [7], ECHAM4/OPYC coupled model 1990-2100
NCAR PCM: National Center for Atmospheric Research [8], PCM model 1980-2099
NCAR CSM: National Center for Atmospheric Research [9], CSM Model 2000-2099
Copyright
This figure was created by Robert A. Rohde from public data and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project.
Image from Global Warming Art
This image is an original work created for Global Warming Art. Please refer to the image description page for more information.
==Description== [[Image:Global Warming Predictions Map.jpg|thumb|right|250px|A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business-as-usual emissions scenario (IS92a). This model
ไฟล, global, warming, predictions, ไฟล, ประว, ไฟล, หน, าท, ภาพน, การใช, ไฟล, วนกลาง, อม, ลเก, ยวก, บภาพไม, ภาพท, รายละเอ, ยดส, งกว, าน, global, warming, predictions, 8206, กเซล, ขนาดไฟล, โลไบต, ชน, ดไมม, image, ปภาพหร, อไฟล, เส, ยงน, นฉบ, บอย, คอมมอนส, รายละเอ. ifl prawtiifl hnathimiphaphni karichiflswnklang khxmulekiywkbphaphimmiphaphthimiraylaexiydsungkwani Global Warming Predictions png 8206 528 377 phikesl khnadifl 25 kiolibt chnidimm image png rupphaphhruxiflesiyngni tnchbbxyuthi khxmmxns raylaexiyddanlang epnkhxkhwamthiaesdngphlcak ifltnchbbinkhxmmxns khxmmxnsepnewbistinokhrngkarsahrbekbrwbrwmsuxesri thi khunsamarthchwyid enuxha 1 khwamyx 2 References 3 Models 4 Copyright khwamyx A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21st century according to the HADCM3 climate model with a business as usual emissions scenario IS92a This model has an average warming of 3 0 C See also Economics of global warming ScenariosShows climate model predictions for global warming under the SRES A2 emissions scenario vague see talk page relative to global average temperatures in 2000 The A2 scenario family is characterized by a politically and socially diverse world that exhibits sustained economic growth but does not address the inequities between rich and poor nations and takes no special actions to combat global warming or environmental change issues This world in 2100 is characterized by large population 15 billion high total energy use and moderate levels of fossil fuel dependency mostly coal 1 The A2 scenario was the most frequently studied of the SRES scenarios at the time of the IPCC Third Assessment Report In total there are forty SRES scenarios and they are grouped into six scenario families A1B A1FI A1T A2 B1 and B2 Morita et al 2001 143 147 2 Each group has an illustrative marker scenario No likelihood has been attached to any of the SRES scenarios IPCC 2007b 44 3 The SRES scenarios do not include additional climate initiatives which means that no scenarios are included that explicitly assume implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or the emissions targets of the Kyoto Protocol IPCC 2007a 18 4 For the six SRES marker scenarios IPCC Fourth Assessment Report 2007 7 8 gave a best estimate of global mean temperature increase 2090 2099 relative to the period 1980 1999 that ranged from 1 8 C to 4 0 C Over the same time period the IPCC gave a likely range greater than 66 probability based on expert judgement for these scenarios was for a global mean temperature increase of between 1 1 and 6 4 C These ranges stem from a combination of uncertainty over future emissions and variations between models regarding the expected response to a given set of emissions The figure above showing the disagreement among models for a single scenario illustrates the latter kind of uncertainty The lowest temperature increase was for the B1 marker scenario where the best estimate warming was 1 8 C 1 1 to 2 9 C likely range The highest increase was for the A1F1 marker scenario of 4 0 C 2 4 to 6 4 C likely range For the A2 marker scenario the best estimate was 3 4 C 2 0 to 5 4 C likely range Temperature Increase 2000 to 2100 C Model Total Land OceanCCSR NIES 4 7 7 0 3 8CCCma 4 0 5 0 3 6CSIRO 3 8 4 9 3 4Hadley Centre 3 7 5 5 3 0GFDL 3 3 4 2 3 0MPI M 3 0 4 6 2 4NCAR PCM 2 3 3 1 2 0NCAR CSM 2 2 2 7 2 0References IPCC 2000 An Overview of Scenarios In IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios N Nakicenovic and R Swart eds Cambridge University Press U K Retrieved on 2010 03 03 Morita T et al 2001 Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Scenarios and Implications In Climate Change 2001 Mitigation Contribution of Working Group III to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change B Metz et al Eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge U K and New York N Y U S A Retrieved on 2010 01 10 IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report Contribution of Working Groups I II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team et al eds IPCC Geneva Switzerland Retrieved on 2009 05 20 IPCC 2007a Summary for Policymakers In Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Solomon S et al eds Cambridge University Press Cambridge U K and New York N Y U S A Retrieved on 2009 05 20 Models The model data used above was taken from the IPCC DDC and the models are as follows CCSR NIES Center for Climate System Research 1 amp National Institute for Environmental Studies 2 CCSR NIES AGCM CCSR OGCM Models 1890 2100 CCCma Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis 3 CGCm2 Model 1900 2100 CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation 4 CSIRO Mk2 model 1961 2100 Hadley Centre Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research 5 HADCM3 model 1950 2099 GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 6 R30 Model 1961 2100 MPI M Max Planck Institute fur Meteorologie 7 ECHAM4 OPYC coupled model 1990 2100 NCAR PCM National Center for Atmospheric Research 8 PCM model 1980 2099 NCAR CSM National Center for Atmospheric Research 9 CSM Model 2000 2099Copyright This figure was created by Robert A Rohde from public data and is incorporated into the Global Warming Art project Image from Global Warming Art This image is an original work created for Global Warming Art Please refer to the image description page for more information xnuyatihkhdlxk aeckcayaela hruxddaeprexksarniphayitenguxnikhkhxngsyyaxnuyatexksaresrikhxngknu run 1 2 hruxrunid nbcaknithixxkodymulnithisxftaewresri odyimmiswnidhamaekikh immikhxkhwampkhnaaelapkhlng saenakhxngsyyaxnuyatrwmxyuinswnchux syyaxnuyatexksaresrikhxngknuhttp www gnu org copyleft fdl html GFDL GNU Free Documentation License true trueiflnixyuphayitsyyaxnuyat khriexthifkhxmmxns aebbaesdngthima xnuyataebbediywkn 3 0 tnchbbkhunsamarth thicaaebngpn thicathasaena aeckcay 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png prawtiifl khlikwnthi ewlaephuxduiflthipraktinkhnann wnthi ewlarupyxkhnadphuichkhwamehn pccubn13 54 10 emsayn 2549528 377 25 kiolibt Pflatau Description Image Global Warming Predictions Map jpg thumb right 250px A map of predicted global warming at the end of the 21 lt sup gt st lt sup gt century accourding to the HADCM3 climate model with a business as usual emissions scenario IS92a This model hnathimiphaphni hnatxipni oyngmathiphaphni phawaolkrxn karichiflswnklang wikixuntxipniichiflni karichbn ar wikipedia org ملف Risks and Impacts of Global Warming png التقرير الخاص عن سيناريوهات الانبعاثات karichbn cs wikipedia org Wikipedista Jirka Dl Obecny cirkularni model Model vseobecne cirkulace karichbn de wikipedia org Wikipedia Fotowerkstatt Archiv 4 karichbn el wikipedia org Epiptwseis ths klimatikhs allaghs karichbn en wikipedia org General circulation model Climateprediction net User Dragons flight Images Talk Extreme weather Portal Energy Selected article Wikipedia Reference desk 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